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Dans un article précédent, j'ai expliqué que la compréhension du changement climatique actuel remonte au XIXe siècle. Mais les hommes se sont intéressés au climat, à ses évolutions et à leurs impacts sur la société bien avant cette date. Ces réflexions sont un peu tombées dans l'oubli mais elles ont souvent des résonances modernes frappantes.
La théorie des climats
Les voyageurs se sont toujours étonnés des différences de mœurs et de caractères qu'ils rencontraient chez les peuples étrangers. Dans les époques qui ont été marquées par la prise de contact avec des civilisations inconnues, notamment pendant l'expansion grecque en Méditerranée et à les grandes découvertes européennes, l'explication de ces différences a été un enjeu important pour les philosophes, les scientifiques et les religieux. Une solution proposée dès l'antiquité grecque et régulièrement reprise jusqu'à l'époque moderne consiste à expliquer les différences entre groupes humains par les climats auxquels ils sont soumis, c'est ce que l'on appelle la "théorie des climats". Cette théorie est généralement attribuée au maitre de la médecine grecque Hippocrate (ci contre). Dans son ouvrage Des airs, des eaux et des lieux (environ -400), il essaie de discerner l'influence de l'environnement sur la santé - cette approche qui voit l'origine des maladies dans une forme de pollution dominera la médecine occidentale jusqu'à la fin du XIXe siècle. Hippocrate attribue un rôle particulièrement important aux conditions climatiques, pour lui celles-ci déterminent les caractéristiques physiques mais aussi, par extension, morales et intellectuelles des populations.
Cette idée d'un déterminisme climatique est largement répandue chez les auteurs grecs puis romains, elle se retrouve notamment chez Platon, Aristote, Gallien et Ptolémée. Aristote affirme par exemple : "Les peuples qui habitent les climats froids, même dans l'Europe, sont en général pleins de courage. Mais ils sont certainement inférieurs en intelligence et en industrie ; aussi conservent-ils leur liberté ; mais ils sont politiquement indisciplinables, et n'ont jamais pu conquérir leurs voisins. En Asie, au contraire, les peuples ont plus d'intelligence, d'aptitude pour les arts ; mais ils manquent de cœur, et ils restent sous le joug d'un esclavage perpétuel. La race grecque, qui topographiquement est intermédiaire, réunit toutes les qualités des deux autres. Elle possède à la fois l'intelligence et le courage. Elle sait en même temps garder son indépendance et former de très bons gouvernements, capable, si elle était réunie en un seul État, de conquérir l'univers."
Politique, livre IV, chapitre VI
(traduction de Barthélemy Saint-Hilaire)
Montesquieu : "L'empire du climat est le premier de tous les empires"
Hippocrate, Aristote, Ptolémée... Ces auteurs exercent une énorme influence sur la pensée occidentale à la fin du Moyen Age et pendant la Renaissance. Il n'est donc pas surprenant de voir resurgir de temps à autres la théorie des climats, par exemple chez Thomas d'Aquin (XIIIe siècle), Jean Pic de la Mirandole (XVe) ou Francis Bacon (XVIe-XVIIe). Avec les grandes découvertes et la révolution scientifique du XVIIe et XVIIIe siècle, elle connait un véritable renouveau. On doit surtout à Montesquieu de l'avoir développé et systématisé : plusieurs livres de l'Esprit des lois (publié 1748) sont intégralement consacrés à l'influence du climat sur les caractères et sur les modes de gouvernement. Pour Montesquieu, et pour beaucoup de savants et de philosophes des Lumières, "l'empire du climat est le premier de tous les empires"...
A la même époque se produit un basculement important : des observateurs notent l'influence sur le climat local de la déforestation, du développement de monoculture dans les colonies ou de la concentration d'activités industrielles. Alors que depuis Ptolémée, le climat était considéré comme déterminé par la longitude, les savants prennent conscience de variations locales. Le climat n'est donc plus pensé comme une caractéristique géographique immuable mais comme un ensemble de données variables dans le temps et susceptibles d'être modifiées par les activités humaines.
Modifier le climat, pour le meilleurs et pour le pire
Si le climat façonne les sociétés et que les activités humaines sont susceptibles de l'altérer, il faut veiller à ne pas le dégrader. Cette préoccupation que nous aurions cru réservé au XXIe siècle est très présente au début de l'industrialisation européenne. On s'inquiète alors régulièrement de dérèglements néfastes causés par les activités humaines. En 1821, au terme d'un hiver particulièrement rude, le ministre de l'intérieur Siméon réclame, par exemple, une enquête aux préfets sur le sujet : "Depuis quelques années, nous sommes témoins de refroidissements sensibles dans l’atmosphère, de variations subites dans les saisons et d’ouragans […] auxquels la France semble devenir de plus en plus sujette. On l’attribue en partie aux déboisements des montagnes, aux défrichements des forêts" (cité ici). En 1822, le philosophe socialiste Charles Fourier (qui n'a aucune relation avec le Joseph Fourier qui à la même date découvre l'effet de serre) s'inquiète : "les désordres climatériques sont un vice inhérent à la culture civilisée ; elle bouleverse tout par la lutte de l’intérêt individuel avec l’intérêt collectif." A cette époque, il arrive que la décadence de la civilisation égyptienne soit attribuée à une mauvaise gestion de l'environnement qui aurait éloigné son climat de l'optimum tempéré.
Inversement, en 1780, Buffon affirme que l'humanité pourrait "modifier les influences du climat qu’elle habite et en fixer pour ainsi dire la température au point qui lui convient". Si, aux mêmes latitudes, le climat américain est beaucoup plus froid que le climat européen, c'est explique-t-il parce que les forets n'y ont pas encore été abattues, la colonisation et la mise en valeur du nouveau continent devrait donc s'accompagner de l'apparition d'une climat plus favorable.
Dans la seconde moitié du XIXe siècle, ces réflexions s'effacent progressivement. D'abord les progrès de la médecine et la révolution pasteurienne discréditent les vieilles thèses hippocratiques : les maladies s'expliquent enfin et il n'est plus nécessaire de faire appel aux causes environnementales. De même, l'apparition de la sociologie tend à substituer des facteurs sociaux aux facteurs environnementaux comme déterminant des caractéristiques morales, intellectuelles et politiques d'un groupe. Enfin les progrès en science de la Terre permettent de comprendre que la planète est beaucoup plus ancienne qu'on le pensait auparavant et que le climat a connu d'importantes variations dans le passé : on revient à une conception ptoléméenne du climat comme un cadre déterminé par des paramètres astronomiques et pratiquement fixe à l'échelle historique. Mais pas pour longtemps...
Publié le 5 octobre 2016 par Thibault Laconde
Illustration : By Sailko (Own work) [CC BY 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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