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Au moment où on débat si âprement pour savoir si les économistes ont le droit de s'écarter de la doxa de leur discipline, voici un petit livre qui remet bien des idées en place. Non seulement il montre comment cette doxa nourrit le réchauffement climatique - un constat qui n'a rien de nouveau - mais il démonte les mécanismes qui rendent le discours économique si nocif.
Savoir économique et discours économique
Dans Comment les économistes réchauffent la planète, Antonin Pottier nous explique que l'économie a deux faces. C'est à la fois une discipline universitaire appuyée sur des raisonnements mathématiques ou des expériences rigoureuses, ce qu'il appelle le "savoir économique", et une vision philosophique de l'homme et de la société, un "discours économique" qui ne s’inspire que vaguement de travaux scientifiques.
A titre d'exemple, lorsque le savoir économique affirme que le marché conduit toujours à une situation optimale, il entend marché au sens de Walras et optimum au sens de Pareto. On peut alors effectivement démontrer, comme l'ont fait Arrow et Debreu en 1954, que le marché est optimal mais ce résultat n'a que très peu de signification pratique tant les hypothèses sont restrictives et les modèles éloignés de la réalité. Il n'empêche que, sur la base de cette démonstration, le discours économique élève la perfection des marchés en vérité générale, incontournable pour comprendre le fonctionnement de la société ou prendre une décision politique. Cette équivoque entre théorie et idéologie permet aux économistes de s'attribuer un rôle social considérable tout en pouvant s’abriter derrière leurs démonstrations formelles en cas de contestation.
Comment l'économie voit le changement climatique
Or si le savoir économique peut donner une image réaliste de la complexité du monde, c'est généralement à l'aune du discours économique et de ses vérités simplistes que les décideurs économiques et politiques agissent. Et des éléments centraux de ce discours poussent à l'inaction en matière de changement climatique.
C'est d'abord le cas de la perfection du marché. Cette croyance, au même titre que la croyance en une divinité protectrice, est incompatible avec la perspective de la catastrophe à venir et nourrit le climatoscepticisme. Plus précisément, la conception du marché comme institution immuable traduisant l'ensemble de l'information à chaque instant sous la forme de prix à partir desquels des consommateurs rationnels prennent leurs décisions revient à postuler que la société peut spontanément et instantanément s'adapter à toute perturbation. Une fois effacés les immenses problèmes posés par l'adaptation, il n'est plus surprenant que les économistes ne voient dans le changement climatique qu'un épiphénomène. Le rapport Stern, pourtant dénoncé comme biaisé et trop pessimiste par une bonne partie de la profession, calcule ainsi que les dommages pour un réchauffement de 8°C s’élèveraient à 6% du PIB mondial (pour comparaison, la crise de 2008 a coûté aux États-Unis 10% de leur PIB). Et à cette sous-estimation chronique, il faut encore ajouter l'actualisation qui estompe irrémédiablement les dommages futurs.
Une nouvelle étape est franchie lorsque les économistes se lancent dans une analyse coût-bénéfice. Le changement climatique est alors vu comme un avatar de la question économique classique : vaut-il mieux dépenser maintenant ou plus tard ? Ce qui conduit à calculer un "réchauffement climatique optimal" avec des résultats proprement absurdes : le modèle proposé par Nordhaus mène, par exemple, à un réchauffement "optimal" de 6.2°C ! Lors du dernier maximum glaciaire, une calotte de glace recouvrait la moitié de l'hémisphère nord alors que la température n'était inférieure que d'environ 5°C à celle d'aujourd'hui : personne ne peut dire à quoi ressemblerait un monde réchauffé de 6°C. Mais enfermé dans l'illusion de connaissance que procurent ses équations, l'économiste, lui, aborde cette perspective avec optimisme et légèreté...
En conclusion
Avant de conclure son ouvrage, Antonin Pottier envoie une dernière pique au marché du carbone et au rêve d'un prix unique planétaire. Il y voit l'archétype des fausses solutions dans lesquels les économistes se complaisent sans aucun égard pour la réalité et ses nombreux écarts avec les modèles.
Au final, le réquisitoire est rude mais bien argumenté et plutôt accessible (quelques passages risquent cependant de vous paraître ardus si vous n'avez pas un bagage minimal en économie). Mais malheureusement ce n'est qu'un réquisitoire. Après presque 300 pages passés à abattre l'économie classique, l'auteur ne consacre que quelques lignes, en conclusion, à ses alternatives. Or la pensée, au moins autant que la nature, a horreur du vide : ce qui fait la puissance des idées dénoncées dans cet ouvrage, c'est en grande partie l'absence de discours économique concurrent. On peut regretter que M. Pottier ne consacre pas plus de temps à nous en donner quelques bases.
D'autres livres sur l'écologie, le développement durable ou l'énergie ? Consultez la bibliothèque !
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