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Donald Trump n'a jamais fait mystère de son opposition à la lutte contre le changement climatique et de son soutien aux énergies fossiles. Pendant les 100 premiers jours de sa présidence, il a promis de démanteler les politiques de réduction des émissions mises en place par Barack Obama et "d'annuler l'Accord de Paris".
Mais même l'homme le plus puissant du monde libre *grattement de gorge* ne peut pas annuler tout seul un accord international signé par 193 pays. Tout au plus il peut en retirer son pays en espérant que d'autres suivront, voici concrètement ce que l'administration Trump pourrait faire dans ce sens.
L'option légaliste (via l'article 28 de l'Accord de Paris)
L'Accord de Paris est entré en vigueur le 4 novembre et il a été ratifié pour les États-Unis par le président Obama. Or pacta sunt servanda, ou pour le dire selon les termes de l'article 26 de la Convention de Vienne : "Tout traité en vigueur lie les parties et doit être exécuté par elles de bonne foi". En théorie, donc, les États-Unis ne peuvent se retirer de l'Accord de Paris qu'en respectant la procédure prévue par l'Accord lui-même. Celle-ci se trouve à l'article 28 et prévoit qu'un pays ne peut pas dénoncer l'Accord moins de 3 ans après y avoir adhéré et que la dénonciation ne peut pas prendre effet moins d'un an après sa notification. En clair, les États-Unis ne pourraient pas sortir de l'Accord de Paris avant le 4 novembre 2020, c'est-à-dire à la toute fin du premier mandat de Donald Trump.
L'option légaliste bis (avec passage par le Sénat)
Kevin Cramer, qui conseille Donald Trump sur les questions d'énergie, a laissé entendre récemment que ce serait au Sénat américain de donner le coup fatal à l'Accord de Paris.
Il me semble que cela nécessiterait d'abord d'annuler la ratification de l'Accord par le Président Obama. Ce n'est pas impossible puisqu'elle a été faite via un executive agreement dont la légalité est contestée. La Cour Suprême pourrait donc être amenée à se prononcer. Sur les 9 sièges de la Cour, 4 sont occupés par des juges nommés par des présidents républicains, 4 par des juges nommés par des présidents démocrates et le dernier siège est vacant depuis la mort d'Antonin Scalia en février. C'est au président de nommer son successeur mais la nomination doit être confirmée par le Sénat, où les républicains disposent de la majorité. Le siège vacant sera par conséquent probablement attribué par Donald Trump. Cela donnerait la majorité aux conservateurs. Dans ces conditions, il est possible que la ratification de l'Accord de Paris par les États-Unis soit déclarée nulle. L'administration Trump aurait alors beau jeu de suivre le processus de ratification normal et de laisser au Sénat le soin de rejeter le texte.
L'option passive-aggressive
Mais à quoi bon quitter l'Accord de Paris ? Au fond, personne ne peut contraindre un État à tenir ses engagements, surtout s'il s'agit de la première puissance mondiale. D'ailleurs les engagements pris dans l'(I)NDC américaine l'année dernière ne sont pas juridiquement contraignants...
Une troisième possibilité serait donc tout simplement d'ignorer l'Accord de Paris. C'est somme toute l'option la plus probable, éventuellement accompagnée d'une dénonciation par la voie de l'article 28.
L'option "on rentre dans le tas"
Enfin on ne peut pas exclure deux stratégies plus radicales :
Soit dénoncer l'Accord de Paris sans passer par la voie légale. Par exemple, par une déclaration solennelle. Celle-ci n'aurait évidemment aucune valeur juridique mais, encore une fois, qui peut contraindre les Etats-Unis ? Sur le fond, cette option ne diffère pas vraiment de la précédente mais sa portée politique serait autrement plus dévastatrice : elle ferait passer le message que les engagements internationaux des États-Unis s'inclinent devant le bon vouloir du président, au-delà de la lutte contre le changement climatique c'est l'idée d'un ordre international régi par le droit qui s’effondrerait.
Soit dénoncer directement la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques, ce qui est possible avec un préavis d'un an seulement et entraine la sortie automatique de l'Accord de Paris (cf. art.28 al. 3). Seulement cette convention n'a pas été signée par un démocrate amis des arbres mais par George Bush père, et elle a été ratifiée dans les formes par le Sénat. C'est aussi un des textes internationaux les plus universels avec 196 États-membres, en sortir isolerait gravement les États-Unis.
Dans un cas comme dans l'autre, cela marquerait une volonté de rupture avec la communauté internationale qui irait au-delà de la seule question du climat.
A l'heure actuelle, il est impossible de dire ce que l'Administration Trump fera lorsqu'elle accédera au pouvoir en janvier. Peut-être que, comme beaucoup de gens semblent vouloir le croire ici, la réalité économique et la crainte d'un isolement diplomatique dissuaderont les américains de se retirer de l'Accord de Paris. Pour ma part, je crois qu'il s'agit de rêves éveillés. Quoiqu'il en soit, cette incertitude, qui rappelle celle qu'avait connu la COP6 avec l'élection de George Bush junior, a déjà une conséquence négative : la COP22 vient de passer en mode "damage control" et il est peu probable qu'elle voie des avancées concrètes.
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